[Update as of 1:40pm]: Crist posts 2mil, Rubio 1.75mil. Crist has 7.5mil cash-on-hand... quite the war chest.
In Florida’s US Senate race, Former House Speaker Marco Rubio has surpassed Governor Charlie Crist in the most recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac, 47-44. Many neo-conservatives are jumping for joy; many Democrats are shaking in fear.
For the love of God, stop and calm down!
First of all: Charlie Crist is running a near-$6million operation. There are a whole host of donors and bundlers that are deeply invested in the Governor’s success. Because Charlie was such an assumed front-runner, many of these donors are probably nontraditional; they are the ones who only like to bet on sure things. As Crist becomes less and less of a sure thing, expect the tone of this campaign to become very nasty, very fast. The campaigns are both still in the fundraising phase, but that time will soon expire. Within the next few months, I predict things will begin to heat up, fast.
Furthermore, people are forgetting how talented Charlie Crist can be, in terms of dealing with the electorate. He has a magical charm. As long as Crist continues to get out and meet the voters, face-to-face, he stands a chance at regaining on Rubio without having to tear the entire campaign down with dirty tactics and trench-warfare.
Secondly: I’m sick of hearing Democrats complain about Kendrick Meek’s campaign. Early on in this primary season, Democratic leaders had the choice of Senate candidates: Congressman Meek (D-17) or State Senator Dan Gelber. The party leadership decided that Gelber wasn’t their man.
Dumb decision. Dan Gelber, advised by such Democratic strategists as Steve Schale, would have been a far superior candidate amongst a field of competitors like we currently see. Gelber’s voice would have brought enthusiasm to the Left, and would have fired up the base. Gelber is running for Attorney General now, and his front-runner status means he’s locked in; no turning back.
Meek’s best shot right now is to fundraise, fundraise, fundraise; and then wait. Hopefully, for Meek and the Democrats, Crist will let fire rain from the political sky on Marco Rubio’s “movement.” Rubio will respond, in kind.
Is it possible that these two political rock stars will destroy each other’s worlds, thus handing the Senate seat to Meek? Highly unlikely.
Meek has thus run a very poor campaign. He has changed leadership multiple times, most recently removing his Field Director. At this point, such leadership changes seem like the moving of deck chairs on the Titanic (after it hit the iceberg). On top of that, Meek has been destroying his bank account; however, it must be noted that such spending practices have seen a significant curb with the leadership of Abe Dyk.
Meek raised 1.2 million in the last quarter… decent, by most standards, but below-average for a race like this. The Representative is an excellent public servant, a good father and a pleasant human being, yet he has let his campaign be run as if they were front-runners in an uncontested general election. Meek has had offices all over the State for months now; Rubio only recently opened his second.
Ultimately, the hype on both sides has deluded the reality of this campaign. Rubio still has a long way to go; Crist has not yet begun to fight. They still have a solid seven months of tearing at each other’s throats. Meanwhile, who knows? Maybe Meek will fundraise better, secure a leadership hierarchy within his campaign that works, and focus on sharpening his message. If Rubio and Crist end their primary bloodied and bruised, Meek may stand a chance. It will require a lot of money, and a lot of volunteer hours: two things Florida Democrats are saving for Sink, Gelber, or Aronberg.
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